Big Sur fire 2008 - Associated Press

One big problem with wildland fire policy in the United States is that decisions are ultimately made on the Eastern Seaboard, specifically, in Washington D.C., where people really have no idea what a western forest looks like or the immensity of a wind-driven western wildland fire. When people in the East think “forest,” they think trees. But in the West, a forest is often shoulder-high brush — miles and miles and miles of brush, with some trees interspersed, often in remote, steeply sloping places that are impossible to navigate. The current fire destroying our beloved Big Sur is a perfect example. Yes, there are trees there fueling the flames. But the nitro is the brush and the winds.

The fire policy debate among experts is aptly characterized as Minnich vs. Keeley, a very good explanation of which can be found in this San Diego Union-Tribune story by Scott LaFee. Basically, Richard Minnich of University of California Riverside says that fire suppression has created a sea of gasoline in California and the West, and only through controlled burns can we drain the gasoline. His research compares fires north and south of the US-Mexico border, and shows that there are massive fires north of the border, where we suppress fires, and smaller fires south of the border, where they don’t.

From San Diego Union-Tribune

Jon Keeley of the US Geological Survey’s Western Ecological Research Center says controlled burns won’t work — and will cause more harm than good. He says that  the real culprit is Santa Ana winds, not the fire fuel.

Minnich and Keeley both agree that the expansion of housing out of cities and into wildfire areas is the main cause of destruction, and that is obviously true.

Fuel vs. wind? I dunno, probably both. But I do know that we have created this problem ourselves by building homes in fire areas. And climate change will make Western fire problems worse. They question is, how much public money will we spend trying vainly to save rural homes from wildland fires before we change development patterns? How many firefighters will die?